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9月份，國內(nèi)玉米市場受利空因素云集。各地新季玉米陸續(xù)上市，而需求端疲弱態(tài)勢不改;國儲(chǔ)玉米拍賣依舊常態(tài)進(jìn)行，成交率維持在較低水平;盡管東北產(chǎn)區(qū)國儲(chǔ)政策提前公布，但收儲(chǔ)價(jià)格大幅下調(diào)。市場心態(tài)的嚴(yán)重偏空，使得產(chǎn)銷區(qū)玉米價(jià)格大幅下跌。
市場監(jiān)測顯示，月初9月1日3等黃玉米均價(jià)為2252.00元/噸，月末9月30日均價(jià)為2083.33元/噸，月度下滑168.67元/噸，下跌幅為7.49%。
從當(dāng)前市場來看，國儲(chǔ)庫存依舊巨大，整體成交清淡;新糧已經(jīng)紛紛上市，貿(mào)易商看空心理加重，出庫積極性較高。而最為承接方下游需求并沒有明顯改善，市場供給壓力凸顯。由于國家臨時(shí)存儲(chǔ)玉米收購政策11月1日開始實(shí)施，估計(jì)10月份的玉米價(jià)格或?qū)⒗^續(xù)探底。
東北地區(qū)玉米價(jià)格持續(xù)走軟
近期東北產(chǎn)區(qū)繼續(xù)維持低迷行情，市場收購主體稀少，貿(mào)易商出貨意愿積極，下游企業(yè)承接力明顯不足。盡管國家臨儲(chǔ)收購政策已經(jīng)出臺(tái)，但由于擔(dān)憂價(jià)格繼續(xù)下行，市場多持觀望心理。當(dāng)前東北新糧主要來自遼寧，吉林及黑龍江兩省新季玉米大量收割將在國慶之后進(jìn)行。
截止9月底，吉林四平地區(qū)14%水分一等陳玉米貿(mào)易商出庫價(jià)格為2100-2140元/噸，周比下降50元/噸;遼寧沈陽地區(qū)一等陳玉米貿(mào)易商出庫價(jià)格為2100-2120元/噸，黑龍江雙鴨山14.5%水分三等新玉米貿(mào)易商出庫價(jià)格為1920-1940元/噸，均周比下降80元/噸。
華北地區(qū)玉米價(jià)格大幅下行
9月下旬以來，華北產(chǎn)區(qū)市場新糧逐漸增多，加之今年臨儲(chǔ)價(jià)格調(diào)整幅度較大，市場悲觀心態(tài)加劇，企業(yè)及貿(mào)易商對(duì)后市看空，深加工企業(yè)連續(xù)下調(diào)廠門收購價(jià)格，導(dǎo)致玉米價(jià)格大幅下行。
截止9月底，山東濰坊地區(qū)深加工企業(yè)14%水分二等新玉米收購價(jià)格為1800-1900元/噸，周比下降180-220元/噸;河北秦皇島地區(qū)深加工企業(yè)收購價(jià)格為1890-1910元/噸，周比下降60元/噸;河南信陽地區(qū)15%水分二等新玉米飼料企業(yè)收購價(jià)格為1820-1840元/噸，周比下降100元/噸。當(dāng)前，華北產(chǎn)區(qū)大多企業(yè)新陳玉米收購價(jià)格一致。
南北港口玉米價(jià)格雙雙走弱
近期受華北地區(qū)價(jià)格大幅下挫及東北新糧價(jià)格偏低影響，目前北方港口收購主體極少，多數(shù)企業(yè)維持觀望。南港購銷依舊疲弱，一方面受華北低價(jià)玉米沖擊影響，另一方面下游企業(yè)采購意愿不佳。
截止9月底，鲅魚圈港15%水分以內(nèi)，容重700g/L以上，生霉率2%以內(nèi)的遼寧新玉米收購價(jià)2010-2030元/噸，理論平倉價(jià)2060-2100元/噸，均周比下降20元/噸;錦州港口遼寧新玉米收購價(jià)2030元/噸，理論平倉價(jià)2080-2100元/噸，周比基本持平。廣東深圳港口14.5%水分遼吉優(yōu)質(zhì)玉米成交價(jià)格為2230-2250元/噸，周比下降20-30元/噸，質(zhì)量偏差的玉米價(jià)格為2100-2150元/噸，比上周下降20-50元/噸。
目前北方港口玉米到廣東港口成本價(jià)為2160-2200元/噸，貿(mào)易利潤50-70元/噸。市場預(yù)計(jì)，當(dāng)前北方港口優(yōu)質(zhì)玉米價(jià)格已經(jīng)跌至臨儲(chǔ)收購價(jià)格附近，再跌幅度不大;而南方港口玉米價(jià)格仍有下降空間，估計(jì)南北港口玉米貿(mào)易利潤將會(huì)逐步縮小。玉米拍賣同比斷崖式下滑
9月份，國家共舉行國家臨時(shí)存儲(chǔ)玉米競價(jià)銷售交易會(huì)三次。計(jì)劃銷售國家臨時(shí)存儲(chǔ)玉米1558.34萬噸，實(shí)際成交20.83萬噸噸，平均成交率為1.34%，較8月份更加低迷。
據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)，今年臨儲(chǔ)玉米拍賣至今累計(jì)總成交量583萬噸，比上年同期下降80%。具體來看，今年東北地區(qū)臨儲(chǔ)玉米累計(jì)成交566.9萬噸，進(jìn)口玉米累計(jì)成交14.08萬噸，跨省移庫玉米累計(jì)成交僅1.88萬噸。經(jīng)過近兩年的拍賣，2012年的3083萬噸臨儲(chǔ)玉米已拍賣成交2137萬噸，2013年的6919萬噸玉米已成交915萬噸。
根據(jù)測算，截至目前我國臨儲(chǔ)玉米結(jié)余量仍在1.5億噸的高位水平。
利空籠罩玉米仍有下跌空間
從政策上看，新季玉米收儲(chǔ)政策利空市場。一是收儲(chǔ)價(jià)格大幅下調(diào)，三省一價(jià)政策調(diào)整后，收儲(chǔ)價(jià)格較去年平均降幅在10%左右;二是玉米收儲(chǔ)的質(zhì)量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)提高，其中不完善粒中生霉含量超過2%的要求按照規(guī)定用途使用。價(jià)格控制更嚴(yán)格，相當(dāng)于變相降價(jià)收購。三是收購主體中僅新增中航工業(yè)集團(tuán)，在陳玉米社會(huì)總庫存高企的情況下，今年國儲(chǔ)敞開收購的庫容條件或難以滿足，這樣敞開收購的概率大幅下降。
從供給上看，玉米市場供給壓力劇增。相關(guān)機(jī)構(gòu)發(fā)布的報(bào)告，將2015/16年度中國玉米產(chǎn)量預(yù)測值下調(diào)至2.29億噸，較早先預(yù)測值調(diào)低300萬噸。不過調(diào)低后的玉米產(chǎn)量仍然創(chuàng)下歷史最高紀(jì)錄，較上年產(chǎn)量增長6.2%。另國家交易中心今年拍賣情況顯示，本年度至今累計(jì)拍賣成交玉米量僅為583萬噸，遠(yuǎn)低于市場預(yù)期的2000-3000萬噸規(guī)模，去庫存九牛一毛。
從需求上看，玉米深加工及飼料消費(fèi)持續(xù)低迷。統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2015年我國生豬存欄連續(xù)9個(gè)月下降，比前4年平均水平低14%，能繁母豬連續(xù)22個(gè)月下降，比前4年平均水平低19.4%。盡管近來生豬存欄環(huán)比有所增加，但考慮到小豬到成豬的生長周期較長，對(duì)飼料消費(fèi)的拉動(dòng)性影響短期內(nèi)仍難以顯現(xiàn)。
深加工方面，6月份以來玉米加工行業(yè)虧損情況不斷擴(kuò)大，今年除玉米油有上漲外，其他三種副產(chǎn)品跌幅較大，其中玉米皮和玉米粕跌幅達(dá)到50%。以山東地區(qū)為例，自7月份以來當(dāng)?shù)氐挠衩椎矸蹆r(jià)格從6月份的2900元/噸大幅回落到2500-2600元/噸，企業(yè)淀粉加工虧損在350-400元/噸。據(jù)了解，從8月份以來多數(shù)淀粉企業(yè)加工率大幅下滑，目前大多處于停產(chǎn)或停產(chǎn)一半的狀態(tài)。
從進(jìn)口來看，進(jìn)口玉米及低價(jià)替代品大量增加。海關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2015年8月份我國進(jìn)口玉米60.76萬噸，環(huán)比下降45.14%，同比增長354.74%。2014/15年度至今我國累計(jì)進(jìn)口玉米535萬噸，同比增長64%。
8月份我國進(jìn)口高粱54.89萬噸，2014/2015年度至今累計(jì)進(jìn)口高粱達(dá)909萬噸，同比增長175%。8月份進(jìn)口DDGS為79.35萬噸，2014/2015年度以來累計(jì)進(jìn)口DDGS為468萬噸。8月份進(jìn)口大麥77.82萬噸，2014/2015年度至今累計(jì)進(jìn)口大麥856萬噸，同比增長107%。
The English version
In September, the domestic market by negative factors gathered corn. Around the corn in the new season, and the weakness in demand side do not change; State reserve auction are still the norm for corn, conversion rates stay low; Although the northeast region of reserve policy announced in advance, but purchase prices sharply lower. Serious bearish market mentality, making ChanXiao District corn prices fell sharply.
Market monitoring shows that at the beginning of September 1, 3 yellow corn such as average price of 2252.00 yuan/ton, in late September 30 average price of 2083.33 yuan/ton, monthly decline in 168.67 yuan/ton, down 7.49%.
From the perspective of the current market, the store inventory is still huge, whole light volume; New food has been listed in succession, traders bearish psychology is aggravating, outbound enthusiasm is higher. Most accept party did not significantly improve the downstream demand, market supply pressure. Because of the temporary storage of corn by the state policy began on November 1, estimate the price of corn in October or will continue to fall.
Corn prices continued weakness in northeast China
Recent downturn to maintain market of northeast region, market purchase subject scarce, traders shipment will actively, the downstream enterprises to undertake force obviously inadequate. Although the national in the store to buy policy has been issued, but due to concerns about prices continue downward, the market more than wait. The current northeast new food mainly comes from liaoning, jilin and heilongjiang provinces on the new season a lot of harvest corn will take place after the National Day.
Jilin siping area by the end of September, 14% moisture wait Chen corn traders outbound price for 2100-2140 yuan/ton, weeks than drop 50 yuan/ton; Liaoning shenyang area first-class Chen corn traders outbound price for 2100-2120 yuan/ton, heilongjiang shuangyashan 14.5% moisture third-class new corn traders outbound price for 1920-1940 yuan/ton, all week than fell 80 yuan/ton.
Corn prices in north China sharply downward
Since late September, the north China region market new grain increase gradually, and because the price of this year over the storage adjustment range is larger, the market pessimism, enterprises and traders to afternoon bearish, deep processing enterprise continuous price cut gate, corn prices sharply downward.
By the end of September, shandong weifang area 14% moisture second-class new corn deep processing enterprises purchase price is 1800-1900 yuan/ton, weeks than the decline in 180-220 yuan/ton; Hebei qinhuangdao area deep processing enterprise purchase price is 1890-1910 yuan/ton, weeks than dropped 60 yuan/ton; Henan xinyang area 15% moisture second-class new corn feed enterprise purchase price is 1820-1840 yuan/ton, weeks than fell 100 yuan/ton. At present, most of north China region enterprises new Chen corn prices.
North and south port corn prices have been weakening
Recent prices have fallen sharply in north China and northeast new grain price is low, the northern port acquisition subject few, most companies keep watching. Nangang procurement is still weak, on the one hand, influenced by cheap corn shocks of north China, on the other hand the downstream enterprise procurement will not beautiful.
Port by the end of September, BaYuJuan within 15% moisture content, unit weight of 700 g/L above, mildew rate less than 2% of liaoning new corn price 2010-2030 yuan/ton, the theory of unwinding price 2060-2100 yuan/ton, all week than drop 20 yuan/ton; Jinzhou port in liaoning new corn price 2030 yuan/ton, the theory of unwinding price 2080-2100 yuan/ton, weeks than flat. Port, shenzhen city, guangdong province 14.5% water alternating high quality corn clinch a deal the price is 2230-2250 yuan/ton, weeks than drop 20-30 yuan/ton, quality deviation of corn prices for 2100-2150 yuan/ton, 20 to 50 yuan/ton lower than last week.
At present the northern port of corn to guangdong port cost price is 2160-2200 yuan/ton, trade profit 50-70 yuan/ton. Market is expected, the current in the northern port high-quality corn prices have dropped to store near the purchase price, again fall modestly; The southern port of corn prices are still falling space, estimates the corn trade port will gradually reduce profits. Decline in corn auction bluff compared to the same type
In September, the state has held national temporary storage corn auction fair three times. Plan sales countries temporary storage 15.5834 million tons of corn, the actual clinch a deal of 208300 tons, the average conversion rates at 1.34%, is even lower in August.
This year, according to statistics, in the store auction has the accumulative total volume of 5.83 million tons of corn, fell by 80% year-on-year. Specific view, clinch a deal in the northeast corn storage of the year, 5.669 million tons of corn accumulative total 140800 tons, move across the province library corn clinch a deal the only 18800 tons. After nearly two years of auction, 2012 tonnes in 30.83 million in the store has sold at auction 21.37 million tons of corn, 2013, 69.19 million tons of corn has a deal of 9.15 million tons.
According to the calculation, so far our country store corn surplus quantity is still in the 150 million tons of high level.
A bearish corn still has to fall
From a policy point of view, the new season corn purchase policy bearish market. One is for purchasing prices slashed, three provinces after adjustment of price policy from last year the average purchase price is around 10%; Second, corn purchase quality standard, the imperfect grain mildew in the USES of the content is more than 2% of the requirements in accordance with the relevant provisions. Price control more strictly, akin to reduce the price. Three is to buy new China aviation industry group, only in the body of the Chen corn under the condition of high social total inventory, this year the store open purchase storage conditions, or difficult to meet, so open acquisition probability has fallen dramatically.
Look from the supply, corn market supply pressure surge. Agencies report that will be 2015/16 Chinese maize yield forecast to 229 million tons, the earlier forecast of 3 million tons. But lower after maize yield is still to a record high, output grew by 6.2% on the previous year. Other countries trading center auction this year, according to the year to date auction corn quantity is 5.83 million tons, only is far lower than the market expected 2000-30 million tons scale, to stock a drop in the bucket.
From the point of view of demand, corn processing and feed consumption remains weak. Statistics show that in 2015 China's live pig amount of nine consecutive months of decline, 14% lower than in the past 4 years average, to numerous sows falling for 22 months, average 19.4% lower than the previous four years. Despite recent pig amount of monthly increase, but considering the pig to pig growth cycle is long, to feed consumption of drawing was affected in the short term is difficult to show.
Deep processing, since June losses growing corn processing industry, this year in addition to the corn oil is rising, the other three heavy falls in by-products, including corn and corn meal or 50%. In shandong area, for example, since July local corn starch from June 2900 yuan/ton price dropped sharply to 2500-2600 yuan/ton, starch processing losses in 350-400 yuan/ton. It is understood that since August, most of the starch in the decline of the processing enterprises, are currently in production or shut down half of the state.
From the point of import, import corn and cheaper alternatives. Customs data show that in August 2015, China imported 607600 tons of corn, fell by 45.14%, up 354.74% from a year earlier. 2014/15 has accumulated in China imported 5.35 million tons of corn, up 64% from a year earlier.
China imported 548900 tons of sorghum in August, 2014/2015 have imported 9.09 million tons of sorghum, up 175% from a year earlier. Imported DDGS in August of 793500 tons, imported DDGS since the 2014/2015 of 4.68 million tons. Imported 778200 tons of barley in August, 2014/2015 have imported 8.56 million tons of barley, up 107% from a year earlier.
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